War, peace, oil prices and whatever comes. A theory of conflict

Let's imagine that the American troops were received in Iraq as victors and liberators when they bashed through the Saddam Hussein defences back three years ago. It would reproduce the scenes of France 60 years ago: joyful French girls kissing wildly handsome G.I.'s, crowds cheering, champagne corks popping, flags weaving... The government restored set up the Forth Republic, the ungrateful patriots sent DeGaulle packing home and the Spanish Republicans who fought along with the Allies began dreaming of getting back to their homeland and, taking advantage of the war push, try to unsettle Franco.
A pretty picture that was not to be.

But it could have happened in Iraq. The Shiite imams could have helped out, the Kurds up North could have been ready to negotiate some autonomous settlement... The country pacified, up on its feet, the commerce working and the oil fields pumping happily millions of barrels of oil to fuel the First World energy craving, even the Third World needs to catch up a bit...

What? Oh, no! Who ever said we need a happy world?

Those millions of barrels of Iraqi oil would drag oil prices down so much as to make absolutely impossible for the oil producers of Texas, Oklahoma or even the Alaskan fields to compete. Cheap oil means increases in oil use and thus increases in air pollutants, and that is bad, isn't it? Cheap oil means fewer margins for speculation, for wheelings and dealings in the international markets, less returns for investors that put their money this past year on the fluctuations of Brent at 80 bucks the barrel. It would be the ruin for commodities brokers...

Nay, nay. What we need is a unstable market, moving confortably upwards but jolted between now and then by a nice little terrorist attack so the stock moves, the faint-hearted get scared and sell to a loss, and the bold reap a profit...

Does anyone believe that George W wants to finish up the Iraq mess? If he and his cronies are as smart as they claim to be, it is obvious that what they are doing is to extend the conflict because that's what they want. They are not failing in their purpose, are they?

No, I have not seen Michael Moore's movie. I even think he is missing the point. GW is not dumb: he is working for what he honestly believes: a better world... with enough stress to keep the things moving.