Next War-Strategic developments

 Foreign Affairs 

Next War-Strategic developments

The withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan represented one form of defeat. But that was not the feeling amongst the American people and public opinion. It was assumed the Afghan wasp nest was not worth fighting anymore. The regional situation from the strategic point of view, the close Pakistani border, and the more than suspected support given to the Taliban, the autonomous functioning of what is known as the tribal lands, made the war effort more and more senseless.

The weaponry used in the Afghan war was becoming obsolete and difficult to use because of the orography of the land and, no less, the characteristics of the opposing force. Armored vehicles, tanks, and others could not cover vast expanses of semi-deserted and mountainous land. Short-flying aircraft and helicopters gradually became easy prey for portable missiles, RPGs, gradually more sophisticated and thus deadly. The heavy air force found no enemy objectives worth the tremendous cost of modern airships. In due time the only war material with a certain degree of effectiveness was the unmanned aircraft and the more modern “drones”, Their use, though costly, became more and more precise. But their use on objectives in the tribal territories across the Pakistani border, created many collateral victims due to errors, the potency of the ordnance used, and difficulties in accurate intelligence information.

Altogether the Americans finally gave up and called it quits, leaving behind a large number of people who had confided in their protection, then abandoned to the whiff of the Taliban. And thousands of tons of military material, equipment, vehicles, ordnance, and munitions, all for uncertain use or sale to third parties.

At their beginning, big wars are fought with the remaining weapons of the previous war. Not-so-big wars serve as training grounds and experiments of new weapons and tactics. The military-industrial complex needs wars to keep open markets to their fares. Big pieces of equipment like big cannons, battle tanks, and other armored vehicles may not be of much use in modern warfare. As the Ukrainian conflict has proved, tanks are easy prey to more modern antitank weapons, particularly unmanned flying artifacts as they can carry heavier payloads of explosives and, coming from above, hit the current conventional tanks on their turrets where armor is thinner. Also, one-man portable antitank RPGs make aggressive tactics more and more effective.

The Ukrainian conflict has surprised its initiators, the Russian Federation, with the reality of modern warfare. There does not seem to be an easy military victory on either side in sight. In the meantime, tactics and weapons are being tested and reinvented.

But the Ukrainian war is not the “next” war. It is just an intermediate conflict, good to use up weaponry about to be discontinued due to obsolescence. The NATO countries F-16 generously ceded to the Ukrainians are not the least. You’ve gotta make room for the F-35.

The next war will need ample spaces, and sparse populations to avoid much collateral civilian damage and little moral compromise. That is, places with little political clout, few personal relationships, and enough remoteness that could not sensitize the European and American citizens. And preferably fought by mercenaries, as the tolerance for seeing their youth come back in a plastic bag is very scarce.

So my bet is AFRICA. Niger, Congo, Sudan, Sudan…Somalia again perhaps. And plenty of drones, tactical and strategical. They come cheap. The tactical ones are even less than 200$ a piece. Just that may become the one and only deterrent for their use: the M-I complex wants the kind of profit you only get from more expensive junk.

Are just to be seen as the first Palestinian effective drones. When you hear of one, that will be the signal to start a new big African war. And that will be a nasty free-for-all mess.

XA

August 2023